Investigating and predicting the role of photovoltaic,wind,and hydrogen energies in sustainable global energy evolution

0 Introduction

As the world stands on the precipice of a major energy transition,the challenges before us are as unprecedented as they are imperative.This transition,which is driven primarily by the escalating urgency to mitigate climate change and the finite nature of fossil fuels,represents a transformative shift in energy production,distribution,and consumption.This study explores the multifaceted challenges of this impending energy transition [1-3].

First,we explore the technological hurdles.The development and integration of renewable energy sources such as solar,wind,and hydroelectric power require significant advancements in technology and infrastructure.This includes the need for efficient storage solutions such as advanced battery technologies to address the intermittency issues inherent in renewable energy sources [3-6].

Second,this study has significant economic implications.The shift from fossil fuels poses significant risks to economies heavily reliant on oil and gas revenue.There is a critical need to balance economic disruption with sustainable growth,which requires strategic investment,policy reforms,and financial mechanisms to support this transition [7-9].

Third,we address the social and political dimensions.Energy transitions must be just and inclusive to avoid exacerbating existing inequalities or creating new ones.Public acceptance and cooperation are crucial,and require transparent policymaking and community engagement.In addition,the geopolitical landscape is likely to be reshaped as nations redefine their energy alliances and dependencies[8-12].

Environmental considerations are central to this discussion.Although this transition aims to reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change,it is essential to ensure that new energy sources and technologies do not create unintended environmental consequences [13-16].

Technological hurdles to the next energy transition are diverse and complex.Integrating renewable energy sources,such as solar,wind,and hydroelectric power,into existing power grids is a primary challenge.This transition requires significant technological advancements and a better understanding of how they are interconnected and managed.One critical aspect of this challenge is the variability and intermittency of renewable energy.Unlike traditional fossilfuel-based energy sources,renewables are not always available on demand,necessitating a more flexible and responsive power system [15,16].

Energy storage presents a significant technological challenge.The intermittent nature of renewable sources means that energy must be stored efficiently when available and released when required.This requires advancements in battery technologies to make them more efficient,costeffective,and long-lasting.Developing large-scale energy storage solutions is essential for ensuring a consistent and reliable energy supply,particularly when renewable energy generation is low [17-20].

In addition,the modernization of electrical grids is a crucial factor.The current grid infrastructure,which is primarily designed for centralized,predictable power flows,is ill-equipped to handle the decentralized and variable nature of renewable energy sources.Integrating intelligent grid technologies is crucial for enhancing the resilience of the grid,improving energy efficiency,and managing the distributed generation of renewables.This includes the implementation of advanced metering infrastructure,grid automation,and enhanced communication and control systems.Such modernization efforts support the transition to renewable energy and provide a foundation for future innovations [20-23].Addressing these technological challenges is crucial for advancing toward a more sustainable and renewable-energy-driven future.This requires collaborative action from government bodies,industry stakeholders,and the research community to innovate and implement the required technologies and infrastructure.

This study thoroughly analyzes these challenges from various interdisciplinary viewpoints,detailing the obstacles and emphasizing the opportunities for innovation,collaboration,and sustainable development in this energy transition.

The objectives of this paper are as follows:

• This study aims to examine the roles of photovoltaic(PV),wind,and hydrogen energy in the global shift toward renewable energy systems,considering their potential to mitigate climate change effects and replace dwindling fossil fuel supplies.

• This study discusses the economic and technological challenges and opportunities associated with the transition to renewable energy sources.It also addresses the need for significant investments in technology and infrastructure to harness potential.

• This study emphasizes the importance of collaboration among governments,industries,and communities to ensure an equitable and inclusive transition to renewable energy.It promotes job creation and sustainable economic development,while ensuring social equity in energy access.

This paper is organized into several key sections,beginning with an introduction to the importance of transitioning to renewable energy sources due to environmental and resource depletion concerns.It then explores various renewable energy technologies,including solar,wind,and hydrogen,and their potential impact on the global energy landscape.This study discusses economic opportunities,technological challenges,and the need for infrastructure modernization,and covers the social and political aspects of energy transition,emphasizing the role of collaborative efforts among governments,industries,and communities.The conclusion synthesizes these discussions and highlights the imperative for a sustainable and equitable energy future.

1 The imperative for transitioning to nextgeneration energy sources

The global reliance on fossil fuels has raised profound concerns because of their finite nature and environmental repercussions.The combustion of these fuels is a significant source of the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change,which is a pressing existential threat to the planet.Air pollution from the burning of fossil fuels has also been linked to myriad health issues,from respiratory conditions to cardiovascular diseases,profoundly impacting public health and burdening healthcare systems [2-6].

Geopolitical tensions surrounding fossil fuel resources have led to economic and political instability.The uneven distribution of these resources often results in energy insecurity,which affects national policies and international relations [8-12].

The need for a transition to next-generation energy is evident and urgent.Renewable energy sources such as solar,wind,and hydrogen represent clean and abundant alternatives that can mitigate the environmental impact of energy production and consumption.The transition promises a reduction in carbon emissions and a more democratized energy landscape with the potential for innovative job creation,economic growth,and resilience against the volatile pricing and supply issues that beset fossil fuel markets [20-26].

Advancements in technology and the declining costs of renewables further bolster energy transition.The integration of smart grids,energy storage solutions,and advancements in energy efficiency are paving the way for a more sustainable and secure energy future.As international agreements such as the Paris Climate Accord push for global action,transitioning to next-generation energy is not merely an environmental imperative but also a strategic move toward sustainable development and long-term prosperity.

Under a scenario where current practices continue without significant changes,worldwide carbon dioxide emissions are anticipated to rise to approximately 43.08 billion metric tons by the year 2050,up from 35.3 billion metric tons in 2018,as shown in Fig.1.The peak in carbon dioxide emissions observed in 2018 can be attributed to robust economic growth and extreme climatic events.Intense summer heatwaves increase the demand for cooling systems,whereas severe winters increase heating requirements.Additionally,an expanding economy tends to consume more energy than underperforming economies or those experiencing a downturn.

Fig.1 Forecast of carbon dioxide emissions worldwide from 2018 to 2050 [27]

Tables 1 and 2 outline the current solutions and challenges in the transition to next-generation energy systems.Table 1 presents a structured approach for addressing key areas,such as renewable energy integration,advanced energy storage,grid modernization,economic transition,policy and regulation,social acceptance and equity,and environmental considerations.It details specific solutions such as the diversification of energy sources,development of lithium-ion batteries,smart grid technologies,job training programs,incentives for renewable energy,community-based energy projects,and environmental impact assessments,emphasizing their benefits in facilitating a smoother transition.

Table 1 The current solution is to transition to the next energy [28-34]

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Table 2 delves into the challenges faced in these areas,highlighting issues such as the variability and intermittency of renewable sources,the need for efficient and costeffective storage technologies,upgrading infrastructure for decentralized energy inputs,mitigating impacts on fossil fuel-dependent industries,formulating supportive policies,ensuring an inclusive transition,and minimizing the ecological footprint of new technologies.Each challenge is paired with its impact and the considerations necessary for advancing toward a sustainable energy future and underlines the complexity and multidisciplinary nature of energy transition.

Table 2 Challenges of the transition to the next energy [28-34].

Several key areas critical to the global transition to renewable energy are explored in the following sections:From the economic repercussions of traditional energy sectors to advanced technological needs such as hydrogen storage and the pivotal role of regulatory frameworks,this section elaborates on the multifaceted approach required.It also highlights the importance of social equity in ensuring universal access to energy.It details the environmental impacts and provides a comprehensive overview of the strategies required to navigate and accelerate this transformation.

1.1 Economic impacts

The transition from traditional to renewable energy presents significant economic challenges,particularly for industries that rely on fossil fuels.Traditional sectors such as oil and gas face the risks of asset stranding and job losses.For instance,the decline in coal production in miningdependent regions has economic implications that extend to entire communities,requiring strategic investments and policy interventions to mitigate these effects.The investment shift toward renewables necessitates substantial capital,which affects the financial health of traditional energy firms.This is exemplified by Germany’s Energiewende,where rapid renewable energy adoption supported by government subsidies pressured conventional utilities financially and operationally [35,36].

1.2 Social equity

Achieving social equity in renewable energy transitions involves ensuring that all community segments benefit from renewable projects.Successful policies include community benefit agreements and inclusive financing models that provide equitable access to renewable technologies.For example,programs such as community solar projects allow multiple individuals to benefit from a single solar energy installation,which can be particularly beneficial in underserved communities.Additionally,implementing policies that ensure job training and re-skilling for workers transitioning from traditional to renewable energy sectors is crucial.These approaches help mitigate inequalities and foster community support for renewable projects [37].

1.3 Technological challenges

Scaling up renewable energy technologies,particularly hydrogen storage and variable renewable energy integration,presents several technological challenges.Hydrogen energy storage,which is essential for managing the supply and demand in renewable networks,requires advancements in electrolysis and storage technologies to improve efficiency and reduce costs.Integrating variable renewable sources such as solar and wind into the power grid necessitates the development of advanced grid management systems and storage solutions to address intermittency and ensure stability [38].

1.4 Policy and regulatory frameworks

Government policies and regulatory frameworks are pivotal in facilitating or hindering renewable-energy transitions.Effective policies include incentives for renewable energy investments,technology development subsidies,regulations supporting grid modernization,and energy storage solutions.Governments must establish clear and consistent regulatory frameworks to reduce investment risks and encourage private sector involvement in renewable energy projects.Policy actions include tax credits for renewable energy installations and mandates for renewable energy integration into national grids [39-41].

1.5 Environmental impact

Renewable energy sources significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions compared with fossil fuels.Quantifying these reductions involves analyzing the lifecycle emissions of renewable and traditional fuels.Studies have shown that renewables such as wind and solar energy have much lower emissions over their lifecycle,from manufacturing to disposal,than coal or oil.Furthermore,detailed environmental impact assessments of renewable technologies help in understanding and mitigating their ecological footprints,ensuring that the transition to renewables supports broader environmental sustainability goals [42,43].

1.6 Market dynamics

Technological advancements,policy support,and global economic trends influence the market dynamics of renewable energy,particularly in the wind and hydrogen sectors.Growth in these sectors is driven by the increasing competitiveness of renewables,government policies promoting clean energy,and increasing corporate commitment to sustainability.However,market risks such as price volatility and supply chain disruptions can affect stability.Strengthening the resilience of the wind and hydrogen markets against economic downturns involves diversifying supply chains,enhancing regulatory support,and fostering international cooperation in technology and infrastructure development [42,44,45].

2 Transition to PV energy

The next wave of advancements in PV energy is marked by the development and integration of perovskite tandem solar cells,which offer a significant leap in efficiency and potential cost reduction compared with traditional silicon-based solar cells.Perovskite solar cells,which are known for their high efficiency in converting sunlight into electricity,are becoming increasingly viable as mainstream energy sources.These cells have the unique advantage of absorbing light of different wavelengths more efficiently than silicon cells,allowing them to convert more sunlight into electricity.Recent breakthroughs have shown that perovskite tandem cells surpass 33% efficiency in laboratory settings,with a notable increase in the maximum efficiency levels of silicon-based cells below 30% [26,27,46].

One of the critical advantages of perovskite over silicon or other materials is its ability to form extremely thin layers that efficiently capture solar energy,making perovskite cells potentially lightweight and suitable for a wide range of applications.Moreover,researchers have achieved significant milestones such as creating solar cells without silicon with record-setting open-circuit voltages and powerconversion efficiencies.This advancement addresses the energy costs of producing and purifying silicon and overcomes its inherent limitations [46-49].

The Solar Futures Study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) underscores the critical role of solar energy in achieving a decarbonized grid [49,50].It emphasizes synergistic solar potential across various sectors,including industry,transportation,and agriculture,highlighting the importance of integrated energy pathways and collaboration among experts from diverse fields.This comprehensive approach aims to foster new collaborations and holistically study solar energy development and integration,potentially revolutionizing the utilization of solar power across energy systems.

The transition to PV energy,spearheaded by innovations in perovskite solar technology,represents a pivotal shift toward more efficient,cost-effective,and sustainable energy solutions.As these advancements mature and scale,they promise to significantly affect the global energy landscape,offering a cleaner and more resilient power generation method that can meet the growing demand for renewable energy sources.

Table 3 underscores the advancements in PV technology,particularly in perovskite solar cells,for increasing solar energy efficiency and reducing costs.The table highlights environmental benefits such as significant carbon emission reductions and the promotion of sustainable energy use.However,it also addresses challenges such as the hazardous materials and waste involved in the manufacturing process,high initial setup and installation costs,and the need for significant space for large-scale installations.

Table 3 Transition to PV energy: Advantages and challenges [46-59]

Recent reports from reputable sources offer detailed insights into the current state and future projections of the global solar PV capacity growth.

• Analysis of International Energy Agency (IEA)-Renewables 2023: The IEA has highlighted a significant step in renewable power growth,particularly a surge in solar PV capacity.In 2023,renewable electricity capacity additions reached an estimated 507 GW,nearly 50% higher than that in 2022,with solar PV technology and wind accounting for 96% of this expansion.This acceleration was driven by continuous policy support in more than 130 countries and the economic attractiveness of solar PV and wind technologies.

• Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) -Solar Market Insight Report Q4 2023: SEIA provides a detailed look at the U.S.solar market and notes 13% growth in residential solar energy in 2023.They projected an average annual growth rate of 14% for the U.S.solar industry from 2023 to 2028.However,they anticipate a slowdown in growth starting in 2026 owing to various challenges,including supply chain issues and grid congestion.

• The IEA global renewable power capacity goal:Before COP28,the IEA set a target to triple the global renewable power capacity by 2030.However,under existing policies and market conditions,the global renewable capacity is forecasted to reach 7,300 GW by 2028,which falls short of the tripling goal shown in Figure 2.To achieve more than 11,000 GW by 2030,governments in emerging and developing economies must address policy uncertainties,insufficient grid infrastructure investments,cumbersome administrative barriers,and financing issues.

Fig.2 Renewable electricity capacity additions by technology and segment,2016-2028 [60]

Throughout the projection period,the anticipated growth in renewable electricity generation will surpass the increase in global demand,leading to a gradual reduction in coalgenerated power while maintaining steady natural gas production.By 2028,renewables are expected to contribute 42% of the worldwide electricity production,with wind and solar PV energy accounting for 25%,as shown in Figure 3.However,hydropower is projected to continue to be the predominant source of renewable electricity.Nonetheless,many nations must accelerate renewable electricity expansion to align it with Net Zero Emissions by 2050.

Fig.3 The distribution of energy sources for global electricity production [60]

Currently,renewables are the principal source of electricity generation in 57 nations and are mainly attributable to hydropower.However,these nations represent only 14% of the global electricity demand.Projected advancements by 2028 suggest that renewables will become the leading source of power generation in 68 countries;however,they will still only fulfill 17% of the global demand.This underscores the significant growth and potential of renewable energy sources yet also highlights the necessity for broader adoption and faster expansion across more regions to meet future energy needs and sustainability goals.

Regarding the applications of PV systems,Figure 4 outlines PV technology for self-powered applications,including converting solar energy into electrical power for immediate use or storage in batteries and supercapacitors.The applications range from transportation,such as cars and trains,to personal wearables,such as bracelets and helmets.Applications also include household systems,such as lighting and refrigeration,as well as various monitoring sensors for environmental data collection.Additionally,PV technology is a public health tool,as evidenced by its use in smart epidemic tunnels and ultraviolet disinfectants,demonstrating its broad utility across different sectors.

Fig.4 Structure of Self-Powered PV Technologies [59]

3 Transition to wind energy

The next era of wind energy technology will be characterized by significant advancements that promise to enhance efficiency,reduce costs,and expand the applicability of wind energy across new regions.Wind technology innovations,such as taller towers,longer blades,and improved manufacturing processes,are at the forefront of this transformation [60,61].

Developing prototype technologies,including the GE Wind Energy 1.5-megawatt (MW) wind turbine,has been instrumental in the growth of wind energy.These prototypes have evolved into commercially viable products with improvements in rotor blades,towers,drivetrains,and control systems,which have significantly contributed to the reliability and cost-effectiveness of modern wind turbines.

Research by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL) suggests that technological innovations could unlock 80% more economically viable wind energy capacity within the United States by 2025.These advancements include onsite manufacturing,taller towers exceeding 160 m (comparable to the height of the Washington Monument),longer blades,and wake steering techniques.Such innovations promise to lower the cost of wind energy and enable deployment in regions previously considered unsuitable because of lower wind speeds [60-65].

Further developments include segmented blade designs to ease transportation,on-site assembly challenges,and experimentation with new materials,such as carbon fiber,to create lighter and more efficient turbines.Building turbine towers directly on-site from durable materials such as concrete is also being explored to bypass transportation constraints and enhance tower strength.

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)emphasizes the critical role of wind power in achieving global energy transformation and climate goals.By 2050,wind power could cover more than one-third of global power needs,necessitating a massive scale-up in installed capacity.This expansion will require significant investments but is expected to drive down wind energy costs and stimulate job creation and economic growth worldwide [65].

The prospects for wind energy are set for significant expansion,fueled by technological innovations that position wind power as a critical player in the global renewable energy framework.This progress has resulted from collective efforts within the industry to address challenges and maximize the potential of wind energy for a sustainable and clean energy future.For further detailed insights,extensive research and analyses by the U.S.Department of Energy,NREL,American Society of Mechanical Engineers(ASME),and IRENA offer a thorough examination of upcoming challenges and opportunities.

Table 4 summarizes the evolution of wind energy technology,emphasizing taller towers,longer blades,and improved manufacturing processes that enhance efficiency and reduce costs.This table illustrates the environmental advantages,including substantial carbon emission reduction and decreased dependency on fossil fuels.Nonetheless,challenges such as environmental impact concerns(e.g.,wildlife disruption),high initial costs of setup and infrastructure,and technical and logistical complexities of maintaining turbines,especially in offshore settings,remain.

Table 4 Transition to wind energy: Advantages and challenges [60-72]

Regarding the applications of wind systems,Figure 5 depicts a system that integrates wind energy generation with technologies for energy storage,highlighting methods for managing surplus wind energy over short and long periods.For immediate needs,batteries are introduced within wind turbines,which increase their adaptability by enabling frequency-adjustment capabilities.This arrangement allows for the smoothing of sudden variations in wind speed and energy demand,thereby stabilizing the power grid,especially during periods of high demand.Additionally,the figure suggests using electric vehicles as a viable short-term storage solution given their expanding market presence.Through smart charging strategies,these vehicles can contribute by supplying electricity back to the grid during peak times to aid in load balancing,maintain voltage levels,and ensure consistent frequency regulation.

Fig.5 A hybrid of wind power and energy storage systems [70]

Figure 6 illustrates the projected growth of the global wind power market from 2022 to 2030,based on data reported by Renewable Energy Magazine.The market value,expressed in billions of USD,is expected to grow from $112.23 billion in 2022 to $278.43 billion by 2030,reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.67%.This growth trajectory underscores the increasing adoption and investment in wind power as a critical component of the global shift toward renewable energy sources,driven by the benefits of renewable energy and the demand for replacing conventional power sources.

Fig.6 Projected Growth of the Global Wind Power Market(2022-2030)

4 Transition to hydrogen energy

The future of hydrogen energy appears to be on a transformative path with significant developments indicating its potential as a primary clean energy source.A vital aspect of this transformation involves exploring natural hydrogen sources that could offer a renewable,carbon-free alternative to current hydrogen production methods that rely heavily on fossil fuels and emit considerable amounts of carbon dioxide.Research by the US Geological Survey suggests that tapping into geological sources of hydrogen generated through natural processes could meet the global hydrogen demand for thousands of years.However,challenges remain,such as the accessibility of these hydrogen sources,given that they are often too profoundly buried or in locations that make economic recovery unlikely.Despite these obstacles,even a fraction of the estimated recoverable hydrogen volume can provide a significant energy resource[73-76].

The demand for clean hydrogen is expected to increase across various sectors by 2050.Mobility applications,particularly road transportation and aviation,are projected to be the most significant drivers of this demand.The industrial sector,including heating applications,is also expected to contribute significantly to the uptake of clean hydrogen,potentially accounting for 95 percent of the total hydrogen demand by mid-century.This growth is contingent on overcoming demand uncertainties and the development of enabling infrastructure and technological advancement.Furthermore,the success of the global hydrogen economy will likely require concerted effort from the public and private sectors to ensure that the necessary infrastructure and technological advancements are in place[77-81].Technological advancements and international collaboration are pivotal for reducing hydrogen production costs and improving efficiency.The IEA has highlighted the versatility of hydrogen in decarbonizing various sectors and its potential to enhance energy security and air quality.Electrolytic hydrogen powered by renewable energy sources presents a low-cost supply option,potentially revolutionizing the energy sector.

Innovative projects and collaborations are underway to make hydrogen power a reality.Initiatives,such as the HydroGEN consortium and Hydrogen Shot,aim to accelerate research and development toward sustainable and cost-effective hydrogen production.These efforts underscore the global race to harness the potential of hydrogen as a critical player in the decarbonization of the energy sector,with significant implications for job creation,revenue generation,and environmental sustainability by 2050 [80].Both excitement and challenges mark the journey toward a hydrogen-powered future.It requires overcoming technical,economic,and infrastructural hurdles,but offers a promising pathway to a clean,secure,and affordable energy future.Table 5 summarizes the advantages and challenges of transitioning to hydrogen energy,highlighting the multifaceted considerations for harnessing hydrogen as a vital component of a sustainable energy future.

Table 5 Transition to hydrogen energy: Advantages and challenges [75-94]

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5 Impact of climate change on PV,wind,and hydrogen energies

The use of fossil fuels for energy production is a primary contributor to climate change and global warming.Renewable energy sources are critical in reducing carbon emissions and addressing climate change.However,the effectiveness of renewables,such as solar,wind,and hydropower,is closely tied to prevailing weather conditions and future climate fluctuations.Therefore,a thorough analysis of the effects of the anticipated climate change and the corresponding variability in renewable energy yields is essential for assessing the feasibility of sustainable lowcarbon energy technologies.Climate-related challenges,such as increased temperatures,more intense wind events,rising sea levels,and reduced rainfall,represent some of the most significant societal issues of this century.This section explores the influence of climate change on various energy resources.

5.1 Impact on PV energy

Climate change significantly affects PV energy systems through variations in solar irradiance,temperature,and atmospheric conditions.Increased cloud cover and atmospheric dust resulting from climate-induced changes can reduce the solar irradiance reaching PV panels,thus decreasing their output efficiency.In addition,higher ambient temperatures negatively affect the operational efficiency of solar panels.Typically,solar cell efficiency decreases with temperature,because higher temperatures impair the voltage produced by PV cells [95,96].Future scenarios project more frequent heat waves and altered weather patterns,which could exacerbate these effects.However,decreased precipitation and clearer skies may lead to increased solar gain in some regions.Geographical variations in these impacts necessitate regional studies to optimize PV deployment based on predicted climate change.Adaptation strategies include developing PV technologies with improved thermal tolerances and integrating solar tracking systems to maximize energy capture under varying weather conditions.

5.2 Impact on wind energy

Wind energy is highly sensitive to changes in atmospheric conditions and driven by climate change.The primary factor is the alteration in wind patterns;shifts in jet streams and changes in land-sea temperature contrasts can modify wind speeds,and hence,wind power availability.For instance,areas that traditionally experience high winds may experience a reduction in wind speed,thereby reducing the potential energy output of existing wind farms.Conversely,as wind patterns change,new areas may become viable for wind energy generation [96,97].

Additionally,extreme weather events,such as cyclones and hurricanes,which are expected to increase in intensity and frequency owing to global warming,pose risks to the wind infrastructure.These events can cause direct damage to turbines and require substantial investment in robust turbine designs.Future wind energy planning and investment must consider these changing patterns and potential risks,focusing on flexible,adaptable systems,and enhanced forecasting methods to manage the variability.

5.3 Impact on hydrogen energy

Hydrogen energy,often produced through electrolysis(splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity),depends indirectly on climate-related changes that affect other renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy.As these primary sources become more variable due to climate change,the reliability and cost-effectiveness of hydrogen production can be impacted.For example,variability in solar and wind outputs can lead to fluctuations in the availability of green electricity for electrolysis,affecting hydrogen production rates and costs [96,97].

Furthermore,climate change affects water resources,which are crucial for hydrogen production.Regions experiencing decreased rainfall and increased evaporation rates may experience water shortages,challenging the largescale deployment of electrolysis-based hydrogen systems.Therefore,sustainable water management practices are vital for regional planning to scale up hydrogen production.Additionally,advancements in electrolysis technologies that can operate efficiently across various renewable input fluctuations and integrated systems that link hydrogen production with storage and fuel-cell technologies are crucial for mitigating these impacts.

6 The rise of the hydrogen market and advancements in production

Recognizing the diverse roles that hydrogen is expected to play as an energy carrier is essential.Its use will expand in industrial applications where it is already in use,transition to a renewable basis,and serve as a long-term energy storage solution.However,batteries may be preferred for short-to medium-term storage.The current superiority of electric vehicle (EV) technology may not lead the sector.However,hydrogen offers a valuable alternative to natural gas for power generation,particularly for balancing demand spikes,such as when a significant portion of the population simultaneously charges EVs during renewable energy downtime.

Based on the current CAGR and excluding the growth required to achieve the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) target,the anticipated demand allows the estimation of the future price of hydrogen per kilogram.This forecast utilizes market size projections up to 2030 from previous research,depicted in Figure 7 as billions of Euros.According to previous research,the market is expected to reach 238.9 billion Euros by 2030,with the need to increase to 295.8 billion Euros to meet the NZE target.This analysis suggests a decrease in hydrogen prices to 1.20 Euros/kg by 2030 in an optimistic scenario,highlighted by the red dots in Figure 7,focusing on regions abundant in renewable resources,such as Australia,China,and Southeast Europe.

Fig.7 Expected hydrogen market size and generation price in €/kg

Furthermore,Fig.8 outlines six scenarios for hydrogen demand and price projections for 2030,2040,and 2050 based on various growth rates.These scenarios predict significant market expansion,with demand reaching 600 Mt H2 by 2050 in the standard scenario and nearly 800 Mt H2 in the optimistic scenario,corresponding to market sizes of 1,050.68 and 1,263.15 billion Euros,respectively.Such market growth would decrease hydrogen production costs to approximately 1.15 Euros/kg H2,a more feasible figure than 0.63 Euros/kg H2 in the NZE scenario.The projections for 2050,as shown in Figure 9,suggest that major hydrogen-producing countries will see prices around 2 Euros/kg H2,while import-dependent countries such as Japan or Vietnam might face prices up to twice as high,surpassing 4 Euros/kg H2.

Fig.8 The expected hydrogen demand and generation price are in 2030,2040,and 2050

Fig.9 Hydrogen price in 2050 by region

Although hydrogen has substantial power generation capabilities,its application in this area remains relatively minimal.A considerable volume of commercially produced hydrogen is employed across diverse industries such as metalworking,oil refining and recycling,fertilizer production,and chemical processing,as depicted in Fig.10.

Fig.10 Present and prospective industrial uses of hydrogen [74]

7 Global renewable energy transition:A discussion

These findings indicate a positive trajectory for the hydrogen market until 2050,highlighting the substantial investments that are currently being made and projected for the future.Despite the increased production,storage,and transportation costs,the outlook remains optimistic.A key factor driving this optimism is the expected expansion in electrolysis capacity,projected to be more than 30 times its 2021 level.This expansion is set to enable emission-free hydrogen production,marking a significant step toward a clean-energy-dominated future.Additionally,a surge in the demand for hydrogen is anticipated,which will significantly increase the market size.

The demand for hydrogen is expected to increase considerably by 2030,with projections showing an increase of 1.5 to 1.65 times the levels of 2020,depending on the scenario.The outlook for 2050 is even more promising,with demand potentially reaching 6.5 to 8.5 times the levels in 2020.Consequently,the market is expected to expand to 1.5 times its size by 2030 compared to 2020,and could grow 7.5 to 9 times by 2050.

This surge in supply and demand,coupled with the anticipated reductions in electrolysis costs,is expected to lead to decreased hydrogen prices.By 2030,prices could be 9-16% lower,and by 2050,they could drop by 25-50%,positioning hydrogen as a key renewable energy source.Its affordability,reliability,and zero emissions make hydrogen an increasingly attractive option for the future energy mix.

Table 6 summarizes the key points regarding the global transition to renewable energy from 2023 to 2028,highlighting the significant capacity growth and role of different technologies in this shift.This shows that renewables are expected to account for 42% of global electricity generation by 2028,with wind and solar PV leading the charge,particularly in China,the European Union,the United States,and India.China is notably leading the expansion and is responsible for 56% of the global increase,with solar PV technology accounting for threequarters of the growth.The United States and India are also significant contributors to capacity growth,with nearly 340 GW and 205 GW added,respectively.This transition underscores the global commitment to diversifying energy sources,reducing carbon emissions,and embracing cleaner and more sustainable energy solutions across various regions,each contributing uniquely to the global energy landscape.

Table 6 Global renewable energy transition: Capacity growth and technology focus (2023-2028) [60]

The future of solar PV energy is becoming increasingly promising,with significant potential to enhance the global share of clean energy sources [98].Scalability and continuous advancements in solar PV technology are crucial for reducing carbon emissions and addressing climate change concerns.As solar PV technology becomes more cost-effective and efficient,they can help meet growing energy sustainably demands without exacerbating environmental degradation.The focus is on leveraging solar PV technology to diversify the energy mix and ensure that energy production aligns with global environmental and climate objectives.This perspective emphasizes the importance of extensively integrating solar PV technology into energy systems,highlighting their role in fostering a sustainable and ecofriendly energy future [99].

8 Conclusions and Future Global Insight

This article provides exhaustive insight into the global pivot toward sustainable energy technologies,underlining the critical shift to renewables,such as solar,wind,and hydrogen,in response to climate change and fossil fuel depletion.It navigates through technological breakthroughs,economic prospects,hurdles,and sociopolitical and environmental benefits tied to the transition to renewable energy.Central to the discussion is the call for a united front among governments,industries,and communities to address technological and infrastructural modernization challenges,advocating for a transition that is equitable,conducive to job creation,and fosters sustainable development.Supplementing this narrative,this study presents an optimistic forecast for the hydrogen market through 2050,emphasizing significant current and anticipated investments despite rising production,storage,and transportation costs.Optimism stems from an expected exponential increase in the electrolysis capacity,predicted to be more than 30 times its 2021 level,facilitating emission-free hydrogen production and signifying a monumental stride toward a clean energy future.The anticipated demand surge for hydrogen is set to significantly expand the market,with demand by 2030 projected to increase by 1.5 to 1.65 times that of 2020,depending on the scenario,and even more encouraging,demand by 2050 could be 6.5 to 8.5 times that of 2020.This expected growth in supply and demand,coupled with projected reductions in electrolysis costs,suggests that hydrogen prices could fall by 9-16% by 2030 and 25-50% by 2050,establishing hydrogen as a pivotal renewable energy source noted for its affordability,reliability,and zero emissions.The study further details the global transition to renewable energy from 2023 to 2028,underscoring significant capacity growth and the role of different technologies in this shift.Renewables are projected to account for 42% of global electricity generation by 2028,with wind and solar PV technology at the forefront,especially in significant contributors such as China,the European Union,the United States,and India.China’s leading role,responsible for 56% of the global increase,mainly through solar PV technology,alongside notable contributions from the United States and India,with nearly 340 GW and 205 GW additions,respectively,illustrates a global commitment to diversifying energy sources,reducing carbon emissions,and embracing cleaner and sustainable energy solutions.This comprehensive analysis emphasizes the technological shift required to combat climate change,and the collaborative,multifaceted approach necessary to achieve a sustainable,low-carbon future.

Declaration of Competing Interest

We declare that we have no conflict of interest.