Energy security in the era of transition

The traditional thought of energy security under the framework of fossil energy can no longer cope with the new energy security problems.In this case,a systematic transition towards low-carbon,clean energy from fossil fuels is the key to addressing the new energy security challenges.This is mainly because the energy transition promotes three major shifts that strengthen energy security.The development mode shifts from resource dependence to technology dependence,laying a material foundation for common energy security; energy production shifts from mineral mining to equipment manufacturing,stimulating a new economic vitality; conventional energy consumption mode enters into the era of electrification,ensuring the sustainable energy security.

1 The inevitable trend of energy transition

The international community’s perception of energy security has undergone several changes.The oil embargo in the 1970s triggered the “energy security” awareness of western countries.The goal of energy security is to ensure adequate and reliable supply of energy at reasonable prices and in ways that do not jeopardize the primay national values and objectives.During this period,energy security fully reflected the traditional thinking of realism,and pays particular attention to security threats caused by sudden interruptions,collapse of existing energy supply agreements and the violent price fluctuations caused by manipulation,as well as the corresponding potential threats like political turbulence,economic threats,military conflicts and terrorist attacks.

Since the end of the Cold War and with the deepening of economic globalization,the international energy security situation has become increasingly sophisticated.Globalization not only promotes the interdependence between energy suppliers and consumers but intensifies the energy competition among consuming countries.The struggle for oil resources remains the subject of geopolitics in the 21st century.The non-renewable nature of fossil energy is leading to constant worries about resource depletion.So,can fossil energy meet the world’s growing energy demand in the future? Will the competition for energy intensify as oil and gas resources dwindle?

At the same time,the long-term use of fossil energy has created new energy security problems.Firstly,the exploitation and utilization of fossil fuels have caused serious ecological damages,and the greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) from their combustion are the primary cause of climate change.Climate change and energy security are key drivers of future energy policy,and future policymakers face multiple challenges to develop policies that are cost-effective,secure energy systems and reduce GHGs.

Secondly,the energy system with fossil energy as the core also exacerbates economic and energy inequality.The number of people without access to electricity fell below 1 billion for the first time in 2017,and the number is expected to remain over 700 million by 2040.Ensuring access to affordable,reliable and sustainable modern energy for all has become one of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDG).

Since then,the connotation of energy security has undergone an important transformation.It is no longer limited to the traditional concept of energy security that focuses on national supply and demand,nor merely centers on the economic attributes of energy.Instead,it reflects the concern for all humankind and the earth’s ecosystem.Energy security has become more multidimensional as its links to other challenges have become clearer.

Therefore,the traditional thought of energy security centering around fossil energy can no longer deal with these new energy security challenges.Hence,expanding the diversity of energy sources and developing alternative energy become the new focus of energy security.Nuclear power was the potential “substitute” for fossil fuels once found by human beings.Nevertheless,three massive nuclear accidents occurred in Three Mile Island (1979),Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011) have put an end to the idea of using nuclear energy as the main alternative energy source for fossil energy.Safety concerns have slowed the development pace of nuclear power around the world,with most governments putting on hold all plans to build new nuclear power plants after the Fukushima accident.Consequently,renewable energy has gradually become a new vital choice for human beings,which is proven to be the go-to option for many countries in their transition to a secure,cost-effective and environmentally sustainbale energy supply.

2 Energy security in the era of transition

This section attempts to explore the implications that energy transition may bring to world energy security and how an energy system dominated by renewables would help improve energy security.Based on the essential characteristics of the energy system,three shifts have been highlighted here to analyze the issue.

2.1 The development mode shifts from resource dependence to technology dependence:laying a material foundation for common energy security

Over the last two centuries,human beings have relied on fossil fuels to build the basic mode of the world economy and modern society.Nonetheless,the finiteness of fossil energy determines that human beings must get off this unsustainable resource-dependent development mode.Firstly,no less than 80% of the world’s population lives in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels,posing a threat to their energy supply security.Net exporters of fossil fuels are also prone to resource dependence disadvantages.Countries heavily dependent on oil revenues are more prone to corruption,dictatorship,oppression,inequality and excessive militarization.Secondly,the rising difficulties in the exploitation of fossil fuels lead to soaring acquisition costs year by year.Thirdly,environmental pollution and climate change accompanying the use of fossil energy have seriously damaged the earth’s ecosystem and threatened human survival.As the world’s energy demand grows,the dangers of fossil energy dependence become more apparent.Relying on technology,the abundant renewable energy resources can be turned into a continuous energy supply,laying a solid material foundation for alleviating resources conflicts and enhancing energy security of all countries.In the very beginning,renewable energy was too expensive for large-scale deployment.Nonetheless,with technological innovation and breakthrough,the cost of renewable energy falls sharply.From 1975 to 2016,the price of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules dropped by about 99.5%,and each doubling of installed capacity coincided with a 20% decline in cost.The construction cost of PV power plants around the world have decreased to $1500 per kW.From 2010 to 2017,the global weighted average cost of electricity from onshore wind fell by 23% to roughly $ 0.06/kWh,with some projects regularly delivering electricity for only $ 0.04/kWh.

Energy supply will no longer be the domain of a few countries.Technological breakthrough and inexhaustible renewable energy sources enable every country the potential to achieve real energy independence and security.Moreover,the results of competition are quite different under two development ideas.For resource dependence mode,nationstates often emphasize the possession and control of fossil fuels so that the essence of competition is a zero-sum game,while technologies can be shared,imitated and learned by each other.The competition between countries will lead to the continuous development of energy technology,which is beneficial to the progress of human beings even though the development degree of different countries varies.

2.2 Energy production shifts from mineral mining to equipment manufacturing:stimulating a new economic vitality

In the era of fossil energy,human beings “get” energy from nature by explorting limited resources,while relying on technologies,solar PV panels,wind turbines,and other equipment can “create” energy.

The transition towards renewable energy has created new economic opportunities.As a technology-intensive industry,the cost of production and operation of renewables has been decreasing over time.As a strategic emerging industry,renewable energy has the obvious effect of drawing investment with much room for expansion.The critical diffusion effect and multiplier effect have made it a vital industry for the world to stimulate investment and create jobs.The number of people employed in the renewable energy sector has increased from less than 1 million in 2002 to over 10 million in 2018.The fossil fule industry is projected to lose 7.4 million jobs by 2050,but will create 19 million new jobs in renewable energy-related industries,creating a net gain of 11.6 million jobs.The development trend of renewable energy and related industries is creating irreversible momentum for the global energy transition.The huge economic potential has provided a crucial impetus for countries to participate in and implement the energy transition.Countries must prepare for future changes,especially those who rely heavily on mineral extraction and fossil energy export.If they do not reshape their economic development structures for the new energy era,they may not be able to adapt to the global economic change brought by the transition.Instead,those countries who invest in renewable energy sources and technologies today may become the dominant geopolitical players tomorrow.

2.3 Conventional energy consumption mode is moving into the era of electrification:ensuring sustainable energy security

The shift in energy consumption mode is another prominent feature of the transition from fossil energy to renewables,which also strengthens energy security in terms of sustainable development.

Firstly,enhanced energy efficiency in the era of electrification is conducive to strengthening global energy security.Energy efficiency is the cornerstone of any transition to a cleaner,more secure,and more sustainable energy future.Improving efficiency is not only fundamental to addressing climate change,but also strengthening energy security,promoting access to energy and reduce local air pollution.Renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements driven by mass electrification can help resolve the energy trilemma (energy security,environmental sustainability,and energy equity).

Secondly,the combination of electrification and distributed renewable energy will provide modern energy services for remoted areas and help solve energy poverty.Microgrids have already been installed in communities in the most remote areas of the world,transforming economic development overnight.In poor areas of developing countries,microgrids is becoming an important driving force for the implementation of the UN SDG of “ensuring access to affordable,reliable and sustainable modern energy for all”.In this regard,energy consumption in the age of electrification can help improve energy poverty,energy equity,and other energy security issues in terms of sustainable development.

3 Conclusion

The key to understanding contemporary energy security is to grasp the inevitable trend of energy transition and the essential characteristics of future energy system.We are on the threshold of a transition to a post-industrial,“smart” energy system,which means “smart” grids,alternative energy for transportation,distributed energy,integration of energy into the techno-sphere,and higher energy efficiency.Overall,the development mode shifts from resource dependence to technological dependence will lay a solid material foundation for alleviating resource competition among countries,conducting international energy cooperation,and realizing common energy security; energy production shifts from mineral mining to equipment manufacturing will be crucial to solving energy security problems as well as ensuring economic development,and promoting countries to participate in energy transition with great economic potential; energy consumption mode moves into the era of electrification will help improve energy security mostly in terms of social sustainable development and human security.Taken together,all of them have gone beyond the simple definition of supply security in the 1970s,and have taken various dimensions of energy security into account.Therefore,with a new and more comprehensive idea of energy security,the global energy transition towards renewable energy and electricity will be the key to addressing new energy security challenges.